NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Four Downs and a Bracket: This Heisman version of Jalen Milroe at Alabama could have happened last season

First Down: What could've been for Jalen Milroe,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center Alabama

Let me take you to January of 2023, when then-Alabama coach Nick Saban needed a replacement for offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and tried to hire Ryan Grubb away from Washington.

And instead was forced to settle for Tommy Rees.

It’s delicious to imagine what Grubb – new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s right-hand man for more than a decade at multiple stops – and the DeBoer offense could’ve meant last season to star Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, who looks like a different player in DeBoer's system.

Milroe wasn’t only the best player on a field full of future NFL talent in Alabama’s thrilling 41-34 victory Saturday night over Georgia, he was a completely changed quarterback. The days of run first, pass second are long in the rearview.

He’s still electric in the run game, can still beat any defense to the edge. But he’s now an accurate and dangerous thrower: he had 374 yards passing and two touchdowns, and 117 yards rushing and two more touchdowns against Georgia ― including the game-winning 75-yard touchdown deep ball to Ryan Williams after Alabama blew a 30-7 lead.

Milroe sees the field and makes good decisions under DeBoer and OC/QBs coach Nick Sheridan (who was also with DeBoer at Washington), and is thriving in the quarterback-friendly offense ― an offense that, schematically and structurally, is less predictable and based on smarter and easier throws.

Alabama under Rees was forced into too many third-and-make-a-play situations for the quarterback. More to the point: there’s zero chance Grubb calls zone-read on fourth-and-goal from the three in last year’s Rose Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal against Michigan.

In fact, with Grubb, it’s not a stretch to say Alabama would currently be defending national champion.

Milroe’s emergence looks eerily similar to that of former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who developed into a Heisman Trophy finalist under DeBoer and Grubb (now with the NFL’s Seahawks).

After Saturday night’s win over Georgia, Milroe has jumped to the front of the line in the early race for this year’s Heisman.  

"He's got more ahead of him," DeBoer said of Milroe. "He has more room to grow."

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Second Down: Kentucky corralling Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss

It had to happen just like this. Another fourth down, another huge upset on the line.

“Your analytics will tell you to punt it,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said about 30 minutes after he didn’t punt.

This, of course, is directly opposite to what Stoops did two weeks earlier against then-No. 1 Georgia, when the Wildcats punted from midfield late in the fourth quarter and never got the ball back in 13-12 loss.  

This time, on fourth and seven from the Kentucky 20 against No. 5 Ole Miss, and what the heck – chuck it deep.

The 63-yard completion to Barion Brown led to the game-winning points (on a fumble recovery in the end zone, no less), which led to one last stop for the Kentucky defense, which led to the obvious: Stoops didn’t forget how to coach overnight.

All of those overreactions that Stoops had reached his ceiling of overachieving at Kentucky now look as silly as Stoops’ decision to punt against Georgia. Some teams develop later than others, especially those playing a new quarterback who has been with the team all of nine months.

Want to know why Kentucky has grown so quickly in two weeks? It’s Vandagriff’s development.

He has gone from a quarterback who Kentucky couldn’t trust against Georgia (he averaged 4.2 yards per attempt), to one who could win the game against Ole Miss (8.7 yards per attempt). The ball went beyond first level throws, and the Wildcats dictated tempo with a ball control offense that held the ball for 40 of the 60 minutes.

Third Down: The Big Ten shuffle

Welcome to the College Football Playoff race, Penn State. Welcome to this fun fall game we call football, Indiana.

As impressive and CFP-worthy as Penn State's 21-7 rock fight ranked win over Illinois was, it wasn't the biggest headline in a day full of them in the Big Ten.

Michigan gutted out a tug of war and kept the Little Brown Jug for another year with a win over Minnesota. Ohio State finally played someone with a pulse, and had an easy time with Michigan State. Meanwhile, we give you unbeaten Indiana.

Really, Indiana.

That was Curt Cignetti last November, when asked what he brings as the new Hoosiers coach, matter-of-factly proclaiming, "I win, Google me."

Now look who's 5-0 for the first time since 1967, and if you haven't Googled Cignetti yet, you might want to check it out. He has won everywhere he has coached, and his impact at Indiana is undeniable ― despite the easy September schedule.

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Nothing football-related has been easy for Indiana. Ever.

Yet Cignetti has quarterback Kurtis Rourke completing 76 percent of his passes with 10 TDs (8 pass) and 0 INTs, and playing nearly flawlessly. The defense is giving up 13 points a game.

I don't want to be the bell ringer of the Big Ten, but Indiana is on the verge of beginning the season with nine wins. These are the next four games: at Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, at Michigan State. The comes a Nov. 9 game at home against Michigan.

That's right, a November game of significance in Bloomington.

Fourth Down: Change, finally, at Florida State

It took three interceptions, a pick six and a 26-point deficit, but Seminoles coach Mike Norvell finally benched quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei.

A 42-16 loss at SMU was FSU's fourth loss in five games this season, and underscored the poor quarterback play all season Uiagalelei has completed 57 percent of his passes, and is averaging a paltry 6.7 yards per attempt. The offense isn't reaching second- and third-level throws, and has been predictable all season.

Norvell finally moved to backup Brock Glenn in the fourth quarter, but it didn't make a difference. Glenn missed on all four pass attempts.

Now comes the heavy lifting for Florida State, whose next three games are against Clemson and at Duke and Miami ― teams with a combined 14-1 record. A 1-7 start to the season isn't out of the question from the team that had won 19 consecutive games before losing to Georgia in last year's Orange Bowl.

The College Football Playoff bracket

No. 1. Alabama

No. 2. Ohio State

No. 3. Miami

No. 4. Kansas State

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia

No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Texas

No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Tennessee

No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Penn State